Buying a home is one of the largest investments you may ever make. In order to make your home hunting experience the best it can be, here are a few key items to keep in mind before you start your journey:

Get Pre-Qualified: One of the most important aspects of buying a home is the mortgage application and approval process. If you need a mortgage to complete the purchase, getting pre-qualified via a detailed review of your financial picture will determine the actual home price you can afford.

Set a Pre-Determined Budget and Planning: Setting, then following your pre-determined budget and staying within your means will set you up for success. Getting pre-qualified will help determine what you can afford, and will help you select the best mortgage options with your future goals in mind.

Hiring a Real Estate Agent: Realtors help negotiate the purchase price and other purchase terms such as timing and specific items included with your new home.  They can also occasionally provide access to properties that may not be listed publicly.  They understand the home buying process and guide you through from the first viewing to getting the keys to your new home in hand.

Property Features: Price and location should be higher priorities than aesthetic details such as paint color, flooring, or even outdated appliances or light fixtures, which can all be updated.  Sometimes homes may only need a bit of imagination and a few minor updates to become your perfect space.

Think Ahead: What you look for in a house today could be very different from what will suit you in the future. Planning for a growing family or helping aging parents may factor.  You can always sell your home later on if needed, but how that home may accommodate you later could increase a particular property’s appeal to you now.

If you are looking to purchase a new home, whether it be your first space, a step up, or you’re downsizing, I would be happy to help! Even if you’re in or nearing retirement, you may have an opportunity to leverage your home’s equity in the future tax free, which can preserve your investments and provide you savings on capital gains taxes.  Please don’t hesitate to reach out to set up a virtual appointment to find out more.  I am here to discuss your mortgage options, pre-qualifications and to help uncover what you need to know now before you make a move.

 

 

 

Adapted from DLC Marketing

Image Credit: Jonathan Borba Unsplash

 

Photo – Samuel Wolfl from Pexels

As expected, the central bank held the overnight rate at 4.5%, ending, for now, the eight consecutive rate increases over the past year. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. This is the first pause among major central banks. Economic growth ground to a halt in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. “With consumption, government spending, and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizable slowdown in inventory investment.” The surge in interest rates has markedly slowed housing activity. “Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand.” In contrast, the labour market remains very tight. “Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated.” Wages continue to grow at 4%-to-5%, while productivity has declined. “Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods, and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians.” With weak economic growth for the next few quarters, the Bank of Canada expects pressure in product and labour markets to ease. The central bank believes this should moderate wage growth and increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers. In sum, the statement suggests the Bank of Canada sees the economy evolving as expected in its January forecasts. “Overall, the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI inflation will come down to around 3% in the middle of this year,” policymakers said. However, year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5%, and 3-month measures are around 3½%. Both will need to come down further, as will short-term inflation expectations, to return inflation to the 2% target. Today’s press release says, “Governing Council will continue to assess economic developments and the impact of past interest rate increases and is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.” Most economists believe the Bank of Canada will hold the overnight rate at 4.5% for the remainder of this year and begin cutting interest rates in 2024. A few even think that rate cuts will begin late this year. In Congressional testimony yesterday and today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed might need to hike interest rates to higher levels and leave them there longer than the market expects. Today’s news of the Bank of Canada pause triggered a further dip in the Canadian dollar (see charts below). Fed officials next meet on March 21-22, when they will update quarterly economic forecasts. In December, they saw rates peaking around 5.1% this year. Investors upped their bets that the Fed could raise interest rates by 50 basis points when it gathers later this month instead of continuing the quarter-point pace from the previous meeting. They also saw the Fed taking rates higher, projecting that the Fed’s policy benchmark will peak at around 5.6% this year.   Bottom Line The widening divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed will trigger further declines in the Canadian dollar. This, in and of itself, raises the Canadian prices of commodities and imports from the US. This ups the ante for the Bank of Canada. The Bank is scheduled to make its next announcement on the policy rate on April 12, just days before OSFI announces its next move to tighten mortgage-related regulations on federally supervised financial institutions. To be sure, the Canadian economy is more interest-rate sensitive than the US.  Nevertheless, as Powell said, “Inflation is coming down, but it’s very high. Some part of the high inflation that we are experiencing is very likely related to a very tight labour market.” If that is true for the US, it is likely true for Canada. I do not expect any rate cuts in Canada this year, and the jury is still out on whether the peak policy rate this cycle will be 4.5%. Courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

 

Changing your address is just one of your to-do’s when you move, but this can go smoothly with a bit of advance planning.  Before moving just be sure to notify the following groups on this list:

 

Personal Contacts

• Relatives
• Friends
• Employer
• Schools, colleges, universities, daycares
• Landlord (if necessary)
• Clubs, associations and charities

 

Healthcare Professionals

• Doctor(s)
• Dentist
• Veterinarian
• Other healthcare specialist(s)

 

Creditors and Services

• Phone, cable, internet, mobility company
• Electricity / hydro
• Natural gas
• Heating fuel company (ask if you receive a deposit refund)
• Financial institution
• Credit card companies
• Insurance companies / broker(s)
• Lawyer / notary
• Subscriptions (e.g., newspapers, books, music, loyalty programs)

 

Government Services

Lastly, it is vital to inform the federal and your provincial/territorial government if your address changes to ensure all your data and ID cards are updated:

• Driver’s license
• Health Card
• Vehicle registration
• Canada Post / epost
• Canada Revenue Agency
• Canada Pension Plan / Quebec Pension Plan
• Old Age Security
• Employment Insurance

 

Whether you are purchasing, upsizing, or downsizing, feel free to give me a call to make a plan for your new mortgage, or to just review your current one.  I’m happy to help.

 

Adapted from DLC Marketing

 

Photo by Cande cop on Unsplash

Credit scores are a bit nebulous but can greatly impact whether you are approved for a loan and how much interest will be charged.  Where they come from and what affects them are not very intuitive and may surprise you.  Knowing more can help you leverage your score and put you in a better position when it comes to borrowing money.

1. There are two credit-reporting agencies in Canada: Equifax and TransUnion. Your credit score may vary between the two. Lenders may check one or both agencies when you apply for credit.
2. Your credit score is listed in your credit report.
3. Credit scores range between 300 and 900 with the Canadian average being 650.
4. Your credit score may be used by insurance companies, mobile phone providers, car leasing companies, landlords and potential employers.
5. Five factors affect your credit score: length of credit history, how much of your limit you have used (credit utilization), the mix/types of credit you hold, the frequency you apply for credit, your payment history.
6. Mistakes and omissions are not uncommon and both agencies have a process to report errors and have them corrected.
7. Very roughly, credit scores of 700+ can offer a higher chance of loan approval, greater borrowing limits, and lower or “preferred” interest rates and insurance premiums.
8. Credit scores are continuously evaluated and adjusted. If you have missed a payment in the past, your score can be raised/rebuilt.  See #10.
9. Checking your credit score yourself regularly is a good idea and will help detect errors, monitor improvements, and identify fraud. These are considered “soft” enquiries and will not affect your score.
10. To increase your credit score: make payments on time, pay the full amount owing, use 35% or less of your available credit, hold a variety of credit types, apply for new credit sparingly.

Please let me know if you have questions on your credit or mortgages at any time.  If you have a purchase in mind, or a mortgage you’d simply like to review given the recent changes to rates this last while, I am here to help!

 

Adapted from DLC Marketing

When it comes to mortgages, there is a common misconception that a low rate is more important than any other factor. However, while your rate does matter for your mortgage, it is not the only consideration.

Other key factors you should look at beyond the interest rate include:

Term: The term refers to the length of time the options and interest rate you choose are in effect, including penalties.  Choosing a duration that matches the market and your goals is important to review.

Amortization: The length of time you agree to take to pay off your mortgage determines how the interest is amortized over time. This impacts how much your mortgage payments will be and how much interest you’ll pay over time.

Payment Schedule: You can make your mortgage payments weekly, every two weeks, or once a month with a few nuances.  The frequency combined with the amount you pay will affect your cashflow and interest paid depending on your choice.

Portability: You can transfer your mortgage to another property with little or no penalty with some lenders.  Mortgage loan insurance can also be transferred to the new home or insure a mortgage switched to another lender.

Pre-Payment Options: Pre-payment terms refer to making extra payments, increasing payments, or paying off a mortgage early without incurring a penalty.  These can greatly affect the amount of interest you pay over time.

Penalty Calculations: Where variable rates typically come with a three-month interest penalty, a fixed rate mortgage penalty is calculated using an Interest Rate Differential (IRD).  This is basically the difference in interest for the remainder of the mortgage term between what is owing and what the lender can earn on a new mortgage for the same period.  However, the calculation has a few nuances slanting in the lenders favour in some cases and can be much higher than a Variable Rate penalty if rates have dropped.

Variable versus Fixed:  For variable rate mortgages the interest rate fluctuates with market rates.  For fixed rate mortgages, the interest rate does not fluctuate over time.

Open versus Closed: An open mortgage allows you to pay off your mortgage at any time with no penalties. A closed mortgage, typically has lower rates but associated penalties to break the term early.

When considering your mortgage, the above components all have a part to play in your overall mortgage.

Contact me to discuss your goals and opportunities regarding mortgage selection, I am always happy to help.

 

Adapted from DLC Marketing

Bruce Ball, FCPA, FCA, CFP

November 21, 2022

The federal government has released new details about a new type of registered savings plan aimed at helping Canadians save for their first home. Find out who qualifies and other key features of these plans.

The Tax-Free First Home Savings Account (FHSA) was first proposed in Budget 2022. A backgrounder¹ and draft legislation was released on August 9, 2022, which provided more details on the plan’s design. On November 4, 2022, the revised legislation was released as part of Bill C-32 (Fall Economic Statement Implementation Act, 2022) and included additional changes². Assuming the bill will be passed, the FHSA rules will enter into force on April 1, 2023.

In this blog, we highlight the key elements of the FHSA proposals and answer some top questions you might have about this new plan.

FHSAs – THE BASICS

The FHSA offers prospective first-time home buyers the ability to save $40,000 tax-free. Like registered retirement savings plans (RRSP), contributions to an FHSA would be tax deductible. Like tax-free savings accounts (TFSA), income and gains inside an FHSA as well as withdrawals would be tax-free.

Who is eligible?

To open an FHSA, you must:

• be an individual resident of Canada
• be at least 18 years of age

• be a first-time home buyer, which means you, or your spouse or common-law partner (“spouse”) did not own a qualifying home that you lived in as a principal place of residence at any time in the year the account is opened or the preceding four calendar years

For the purposes of the first-time home buyer’s test, a home owned by your spouse in which you lived during the relevant period will only put you offside of the test if that person is still your spouse when the FHSA is opened.

How much can you contribute?

You can contribute up to $40,000 over your lifetime and up to $8,000 in any one year, including 2023 even though the rules don’t come into effect until April 1, 2023.

The annual contribution limit applies to contributions made within the calendar year. Unlike RRSPs, contributions made within the first 60 days of a given calendar year cannot be attributed to the previous tax year.

You may carry forward up to $8,000 of your unused annual contribution amount to use in a later year (subject to the lifetime contribution limit). For example, if you open an FHSA in 2023 and contribute $5,000, you can contribute up to $11,000 in 2024. Carry-forward amounts do not start accumulating until after you open an FHSA.

You can hold more than one FHSA, but the total amount you can contribute to all of your FHSAs cannot exceed your annual and lifetime FHSA contribution limits.

Like TFSAs and RRSPs, a tax on overcontributions to an FHSA would apply for each month (or part-month) that the account is over the limits. The tax applies at the rate of 1% to the highest amount of the excess that existed in that month.

An overcontribution can be dealt with in few different ways. First, the account holder can wait until the following year, and then the additional annual contribution room that arises may absorb the excess contribution. Alternatively, it is possible to request that a “designated amount”, not exceeding the overcontribution, be returned to the account holder as a tax-free withdrawal or a transfer to an RRSP. If a tax-free withdrawal is received, the original contribution giving rise to the overcontribution is not deductible. Finally, a taxable withdrawal would also reduce an over-contribution to an FHSA.

Finally, like RRSPs, you can make a contribution but defer the deduction until a later year.

What types of investments can an FHSA hold?

Permitted investments for FHSAs are the same as for TFSAs. These include mutual funds, publicly traded securities, government and corporate bonds, and guaranteed investment certificates.

The prohibited investment rules and non-qualified investment rules applicable to other registered plans will also apply to FHSAs. These rules are intended to disallow non-arm’s length investments and investments in assets such as land, shares of private corporations and general partnership units.

Withdrawals

Qualifying withdrawals to buy a qualifying home purchase are not taxable. To qualify, the withdrawal must meet these conditions:

• You must be a first-time home buyer when you make the withdrawal. There is an exception to allow individuals to make qualifying withdrawals within 30 days of moving into a qualifying home.
• You must have a written agreement to buy or build a qualifying home before October 1 of the year following the year of withdrawal, and you must intend to occupy the home as a principal place of residence within one year after buying or building it.
• A qualifying home is a housing unit located in Canada (or a share in a cooperative housing corporation that entitles the taxpayer to possess and have an equity interest in a housing unit located in Canada).

Any funds left over after making a qualifying withdrawal can be transferred to an RRSP or registered retirement income fund (RRIF), penalty-free and tax deferred, as long as you transfer the remaining funds by December 31 of the following year, since the plan stops being an FHSA at that time. Transfers do not reduce or limit your available RRSP room.

If you take out FHSA savings as a non-qualifying withdrawal, you must include the amount in income for the year of the withdrawal and tax will be withheld.

Finally, withdrawals and transfers do not replenish FHSA contribution limits.

Administration

To open an FHSA, you will first need to confirm your eligibility to an eligible issuer.

Financial institutions will have to file annual information returns with the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) for each FHSA they administer. The CRA will use this information to administer the plans and provide basic FHSA information to taxpayers to help them determine how much they can contribute each year. Taxpayers will still need to monitor the limits to avoid overcontributions.

To make a qualifying withdrawal, you will need to submit a request to your FHSA issuer confirming your eligibility. Issuers will not withhold taxes on qualifying withdrawals.

When any withdrawals are made – qualifying or non-qualifying – the FHSA issuer must prepare an information slip stating the amount of the withdrawal and for non-qualifying withdrawals, the amount of income tax withheld.

TOP QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE ABOUT FHSAs

What happens if the FHSA funds are not used to purchase a first home?

If you do not use the funds in your FHSA for a qualifying first home purchase by the earlier:

• the end of the 15th year after the plan was opened, or
• the end of the year you turn 71 years old,

your FHSA will cease to be an FHSA and you must close the plan. Any unused balance in the plan can be transferred into an RRSP or RRIF or withdrawn on a taxable basis.

If the plan is not closed prior to its “cessation date” described above or if the plan otherwise loses its status as a FHSA, the FHSA holder will have a deemed income inclusion equal to the fair market value of all property of the FHSA immediately before the cessation of FHSA status. Therefore, if a transfer to an RRSP or RRIF makes sense, it should be done before the plan loses its FHSA status.

Since you can transfer funds from an FHSA to an RRSP or RRIF without affecting your RRSP limit, an FHSA may have appeal for those who rent their home. With an FHSA, they may still qualify as a first-time home buyer and accumulate funds on a tax-deferred basis, and they can still transfer the funds to an RRSP or RRIF if they do not eventually buy a qualifying home.

Can I contribute to my spouse’s or child’s FHSA? 

The FHSA holder is the only taxpayer permitted to deduct contributions made to their FHSA. You cannot contribute to your spouse’s FHSA and claim a deduction.

That said, the legislation allows an individual to make FHSA contributions with funds provided by their spouse without the attribution rules applying to the income earned in the FHSA from these contributions. Similarly, no attribution arises if you give cash to an adult child to contribute to their FHSA.

What happens to my FHSA on my death?

Like TFSAs, an individual may designate their spouse as the successor account holder and the account could maintain its tax-exempt status after the individual’s death.

If the surviving spouse is named as the successor holder and meets the FHSA eligibility criteria, they would become the FHSA’s new holder immediately on the original holder’s death. The transfer would not affect the spouse’s own FHSA contribution limits. Note that if the deceased individual had an overcontribution to their FHSA immediately before death, the successor holder (i.e. the spouse) may be treated as having made a FHSA contribution at the beginning of the month following the death. The deemed contribution amount is the amount of the overcontribution but will be reduced by the fair market value of FHSA property that did not remain in the spouse’s plan. This deemed contribution will reduce the spouse’s FHSA contribution room, or potentially put the spouse in their own overcontribution position depending on the circumstances.

• If the surviving spouse is not eligible to open an FHSA, amounts in the FHSA could instead be transferred to an RRSP or RRIF, or withdrawn on a taxable basis. If the FHSA beneficiary is not the deceased account holder’s spouse, the funds would need to be withdrawn and paid to the beneficiary. Unlike RRSPs or RRIFs where the value of the plan is generally included as income in the account holder’s terminal return, the payment of the plan balance will be taxable to the beneficiary. If the plan beneficiary is the deceased’s estate, and the surviving spouse is an estate beneficiary, then the estate can pay the plan proceeds to the surviving spouse, and if a joint designation is made, the spouse will be treated as though they received a payment from the plan directly. This may allow for a transfer to the spouse’s FHSA, RRSP or RRIF and otherwise, the spouse will be taxed on the income.  If the plan proceeds are paid or payable to another estate beneficiary, then the income may be taxable to them. The payment is also subject to withholding tax.

Finally, if an FHSA is not closed by its cessation date (in this case, generally the end of the year following the year of the FHSA holder’s death), there will be a deemed income inclusion equal to the fair market value of all property of the FHSA immediately before the cessation of FHSA status at the hands of each beneficiary, or estate, if there are no named beneficiaries (i.e. it will not be included in the deceased holder’s terminal return).

What happens to my FHSA in the case of a marital breakdown?

On the breakdown of a marriage or common-law partnership, an amount may be transferred directly from the FHSA of one spouse to an FHSA, RRSP or RRIF of the other. These transfers would not restore any contribution room of the transferor or count against the contribution room of the transferee. If the transferor’s spouse has overcontributed, the amount eligible for transfer will be reduced.

What happens to my FHSA if I emigrate from Canada?

You can continue contributing to your existing FHSA after emigrating from Canada, but you cannot make a qualifying withdrawal as a non-resident. The rules specify that an individual withdrawing funds from an FHSA must be a resident of Canada at the time of withdrawal and up to the time a qualifying home is bought or built.

Withdrawals by non-residents would be subject to withholding tax.

I just immigrated to Canada. Can I open an FHSA?

Once you become a Canadian resident, you can open an FHSA as long as you qualify under the rules discussed above. To determine whether you qualify as a first-time home buyer, you must consider a foreign home you owned that would be a qualifying property if it was located in Canada. You cannot open an FHSA in a year that you owned such a home or the four previous years.

I’m a U.S. citizen. Can I open an FHSA?

U.S. citizens are generally subject to tax on their worldwide income under U.S. tax rules. Income earned in Canadian registered accounts is generally taxed as it is earned, except for retirement plans, such as RRSPs and RRIFs, that qualify for relief under the Canada-U.S. income tax treaty.

Other Canadian registered accounts of U.S. citizens, such as TFSAs and registered education savings plans (RESP), can create double tax problems and additional U.S. reporting requirements. TFSAs may be subject to tax under U.S. rules. It appears that FHSAs could create similar issues for U.S. citizens, so they should seek specific advice before opening a FHSA.

Can I transfer amounts from my RRSP to an FHSA? 

You can transfer funds from an RRSP to an FHSA tax-free, up to the $40,000 lifetime and $8,000 annual contribution limits. These transfers would not restore your RRSP contribution room or generate a tax deduction.

However, a subsequent qualifying withdrawal from the FHSA would be tax-free, essentially making it a tax-free RRSP withdrawal. To maximize RRSP room, it appears that making contributions to an FHSA is the preferred approach. If money is tight, however, the ability to use transfers from an RRSP will help you maximize your FHSA’s potential tax-free withdrawal.

What’s my best bet: FHSA, Home Buyers’ Plan or TFSA?

The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP), first implemented in the early 1990s, allows a first-time home buyer to withdraw up to $35,000 from their RRSP to purchase or build a home without having to pay tax on the withdrawal. You must then repay any amounts withdrawn to an RRSP within 15 years, starting the second year following the year in which you made the withdrawal.

The HBP continues to be available under existing rules. Thus, you can make both an FHSA withdrawal and HBP withdrawal for the same qualifying home purchase³.

The best choice depends on different factors, such as timing and the potential amount that will be saved.  The withdrawals under both plans can be made tax-free, but since you will have to repay the HBP withdrawal, it appears to make sense to contribute to an FHSA first. If savings are available after FHSA contributions, then making contributions to an RRSP with a view to later use the HBP may be the preferred option where the primary goal is to save money for a down payment on a home and there are insufficient funds in the RRSP to make a full HBP withdrawal.

However, before making additional RRSP contributions to fund future HBP withdrawals, consideration should also be given to using a TFSA to save money beyond the FHSA. Where a choice must be made as there will be insufficient savings to do both, you’ll need to consider the benefits of each alternative. Although TFSAs are not specifically designed for first-time home savings, these plans are worth considering for several reasons, including:

• the ability to save money on a tax-free basis
• the lack of any requirement to repay amounts withdrawn from a TFSA, as well as the restoration of an equal amount of contribution room in the TFSA in the year following the year of withdrawal
• the ability to withdraw funds saved in a TFSA and deposit them into an FHSA to receive a tax deduction as FHSA room becomes available

Prospective first-time home buyers should review the details of each plan to determine how to make the most of them to boost their savings.  Budget 2022 also included other housing related incentives including the introduction of the new Multigenerational Home Renovation Tax Credit and doubling of both the First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit and Home Accessibility Tax Credit.  The proposed legislation for these two measures has also been included in Bill C-32.

The government aims to make FHSAs available to individuals after March 2023, but at the time of writing this blog, the enabling legislation has not been enacted. Since the rules are still in draft form, any decisions on how best to save for the purchase on a home should be delayed if possible until the final rules have been enacted.

 

Source: https://www.cpacanada.ca/en/business-and-accounting-resources/taxation/blog/2022/november/faqs-tax-free-first-home-savings-account

A “guarantor” is someone who guarantees the repayment of a borrower’s mortgage if that borrower is unable to repay the loan.

Typically, a guarantor is used in situations where the buyer lacks sufficient income to qualify for the value of the loan.  Adding a guarantor can help secure an approval as this lowers the lender’s loan risk.

A guarantor is not the same as a co-signer.

Below are some key facts about guarantors and what makes them different from co-signers:

• The guarantor must be a spouse or immediate family member. This is not necessary for a co-signer, who may be a friend or distant family member.
• A guarantor typically does not have their name on the title of the property but their name will appear on the mortgage. In the case of a co-signer, the name is typically on both the title of the property and the loan.
• Guarantors’ borrowing power for their own loans can be affected by the other loans they are responsible for as a guarantor.
• Like the borrower, the guarantor is responsible for the entire amount of the loan.  In order to qualify, the guarantor must meet the credit, income, liabilities and sometimes assets requirements.  Any potential guarantor should seek legal advice before signing for the loan to ensure they understand the contract.

Whether you want to be a guarantor for someone else’s mortgage, or you need one for your own, be sure to contact me before making any decisions. I am here to help.

 

Adapted from DLC Marketing

As expected, the Bank of Canada–satisfied with the sharp decline in recent inflation pressure–raised the policy rate by only 25 bps to 4.5%. Forecasting that inflation will return to roughly 3.0% later this year and to the target of 2% in 2024 is subject to considerable uncertainty. The Bank acknowledges that recent economic growth in Canada has been stronger than expected, and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight, and the unemployment rate is at historic lows. “However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment is expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand.” The report says, “Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022, slightly stronger than was projected in October. Growth is expected to stall through the middle of 2023, picking up later in the year. The Bank expects GDP growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the October outlook. This is consistent with the Bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the economy. Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods.” Short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-over-year measures of core inflation are still around 5%, but 3-month measures of core inflation have come down, suggesting that core inflation has peaked. The BoC says, “Inflation is projected to come down significantly this year. Lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring CPI inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.” (the emphasis is mine.) The Bank will continue its policy of quantitative tightening, another restrictive measure. The Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at 4.5% while it assesses the cumulative impact of the eight rate hikes in the past year. They then say, “Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians”. Bottom Line The Bank of Canada was the first major central bank to tighten this cycle, and now it is the first to announce a pause and assert they expect inflation to fall to 3% by mid-year and 2% in 2024. No rate hike is likely on March 8 or April 12. This may lead many to believe that rates have peaked so buyers might tiptoe back into the housing market. This is not what the Bank of Canada would like to see. Hence OSFI might tighten the regulatory screws a bit when the April 14 comment period is over.   Courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

 

Choosing between a fixed and a variable rate mortgage requires a bit of thought.  Both have advantages but there are significant differences between the two.  

Variable Rate Mortgages

A variable rate mortgage has an interest rate that can fluctuate over time, while a fixed rate mortgage has an interest rate that remains the same throughout the life of the loan.

Variable rate mortgages can have vastly lower pre-payment penalties for paying the mortgage off early.  Further, there are two types of variable rate mortgages.  Adjustable rate mortgages are called ARMs for short, and static payment variable rate mortgages are known as VRMs.  Though both have rates that fluctuate, the difference is in whether the payment fluctuates with changes in the rate.  

As the prime rate rises or falls, so does the interest rates  on an adjustable rate mortgage, or ARM. This can be beneficial as rates decrease, as it leads to lower monthly payments. However, if rates increase, the monthly payment on a variable rate mortgage can also increase.  The length of time it takes to repay this loan does not change as rates fluctuate.  

Like fixed rate mortgages, with a static payment variable rate mortgage, or VRM,  the payment is fixed.  The portion of the payment going to interest increases and decreases as the rate fluctuates.  The amount of the payment going toward the principal increases and decreases at the same time.  As interest rates rise, the length of time it will take to repay the entire mortgage lengthens.  As interest rates fall, your mortgage will be paid down faster. 

Fixed Rate Mortgages

Fixed rate mortgages have interest rates that remain the same throughout the term. This provides borrowers with the security of knowing exactly what their monthly payments will be and what their rate will be over the period.  However, if interest rates in the market decrease, borrowers with a fixed rate mortgage may miss out on the opportunity to save money with a lower rate.  Also, penalties on fixed rate mortgages can often be far greater than those of variable rates.  

When deciding between a variable and fixed rate mortgage, it’s important to consider your own financial situation and goals. If you’re comfortable with a bit of uncertainty and are willing to take on the risk of potentially higher monthly payments or a longer repayment period, a variable rate mortgage may be a good option. However, if you prefer the predictability of a fixed rate, this may be a better fit. Ultimately, the right choice will depend on your individual circumstances.  

As always, please give me a call if you have any mortgage questions, I am here to help.